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The past seemed less complicated. Match number four of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A heaving Murrayfield, a 0-0 draw, January 1964. Celebration when the whistle blew. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, Scottish fans would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, they beat them again. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Two decades of matches later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but results remain consistent.

In his time in the job, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Squad Updates

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where the optimism that supporters maintained for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Thursday brought news that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. Unmatched playing time in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

Another absence is Jones but his replacement is in excellent form with Northampton. There's no such quality replacing big Zander. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

Once Rae's shift ends, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. While competent, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

The coach has made unexpected selections, some logical, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Against Ireland, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They started slowly, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've accumulated scores in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They start aggressively.

Required Performance

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from the start - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, the teams that have managed to beat New Zealand have needed to score in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Conclusion

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? Repeated infringements? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? A blistering beginning. Vocal support. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, maybe. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.