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Typically, the NFL's Coach of the Year honor adheres to a simple formula. It commonly acts as a form of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our preseason projections.

On paper, it's a direct path: the skipper who oversaw the biggest improvement receives the award. However, it fuels an yearly debate about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or merely the greatest shock.

But the current race is distinctly different. The list of nominees is exceptionally deep. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with recent conference champions fading and recent also-rans rising collectively. During an normal year, a coach leading the his team to the top of the conference would make him the stone-cold favorite. Yet in this wild and thrilling season, he's competing with multiple other elite coaches.

This is how the ideal vote should look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Voters for Coach of the Year voters are fascinated by quarterbacks. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. When you solve a quarterback, you're halfway home.

Ben Johnson not only fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal environment, the QB has been given the chance to display his rare ability. From Week 9, the Bears sit at fourth in offensive EPA per play. That's not a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has eagerly submitted to the gameplan instead of improvising. It is an offense constructed solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball run game, a consistent dose of play-action passes and a innovative aerial game that frees wide-open receivers all over the field. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a specific offensive vision. Almost each gamble – overhauling the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a leader who walked into the organization with the level of pressure he did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the coaching market. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a offensive genius but the kind of culture builder that can inject new life into an franchise.

In a ordinary season, Johnson would be the clear-cut choice. But the current is not a normal year!

Where Johnson's candidacy comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears presently sit 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can focus on creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a couple bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is in place for sustained winning. However he falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid turnaround. Over the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the intangibles aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial press conference appearances and some of his offseason moves.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to Johnson, who packed themselves with the perfect staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen bet on newbies. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but frequently collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. But he has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

After an initial hot start, there was a risk that the season would veer off the track. A mid-year setback caused the team wobbling again. That's usually when leaders overcorrect. He did not. Instead, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen refocused the attack around key players and the running game, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's No 3 playoff seed. He receives the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that talent.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Each Coach of the Year case has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and pairing him with an new play-caller might have ended the season in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away after that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

Still